← Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Heretics Haven - Grand Archive Regionals - Phantom Monarch Season
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.4%
avg ELO -6.8 per match
expected value
38.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1163
· median 1163
· range 1163–1163
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1164
Q3 1338
1617
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 10.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
